The Nicole Shanahan Effect: Is California Ready for the Future?

California, the state of dreamers, disruptors—and maybe soon, the state’s first Independent Governor, Nicole Shanahan.

California, the state of dreamers, disruptors—and maybe soon, the state’s first Independent Governor, Nicole Shanahan. It’s where trends are born, social movements make noise, and the political landscape is almost as diverse as the population itself. But—and this is a big but—as voter discontent with the two-party system grows, the question becomes: can an Independent candidate like Nicole Shanahan, RFK Jr.’s former running mate, actually win the governor’s seat? That’s the main discussion we’re diving into today—exploring both the possibilities and the big hurdles.

The Big Question: Independent or Republican?

California is a political unicorn. While it’s home to innovation and Silicon Valley billionaires, its progressive base is so strong that it leaves little room for challengers or even diverse perspectives. But as normal people become more and more dissatisfied with some of the biggest problems facing the state, the question isn’t just who will lead California, but how. Could an Independent disrupt the culture of politics, or is the Republican Party still the only alternative?

Let’s look at the math really fast. The state’s registered voters are 46.9% Democratic, 23.8% Republican, and a surprising 23.7% “No Party Preference.” That Independent chunk is crazy—but converting it into votes is another story.

Republicans might have clearer infrastructure, but they’re still up against decades of distrust in a state that’s blue through and through, no matter who. Independents, on the other hand, don’t carry the baggage of a partisan label, which could appeal to moderates and disillusioned voters — which is great. But without the resources of a major party, they still face a massive battle to fight.

So What About Nicole Shanahan?

Context: I’ve been hearing a lot about Nicole Shanahan lately on X from Independents and Republicans alike who are looking to her as the answer to California, and she really just might be. This conversation really started to take shape for me when I saw Holden Culotta share this on his X:

I’ve been following Shanahan’s rise in this conversation, from her role as Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s running mate to now a serious contender gaining incredible public support for California Governor. I had some concerns at first, as you can see in my response to Holden here:

My biggest concern here is how deeply ingrained the right and lefts media machines are, leaving little room for party diversification. So in order for an Independent to stand a real chance in California millions of voters in the state would need to be educated not only on Nicole Shanahan and her positions, but also the fact that an Independent can win.

While an astronomical amount of people know that the two party system is deeply flawed, majority of people are still withholding their vote from an Independent because they don’t think they have enough influence to shift the state. So—in theory— while the jump between a progressive Democrat to a moderate Independent could be shorter, the education of millions of voters is such a big task that it widens the gap.

But can this change? Can California change? I think so. To Holden’s earlier core point, I don’t think that happens unless Republicans unite together alongside Independents. This would give Nicole Shanahan the media coverage she would need to reach critical mass, the broad base appeal, and the message of unity that attracts left leaning voters who are feeling politically homeless. This could work.

Nicole Shanahan: The Party Disruptor

With that being said, let’s take a step back. If you’re on X, you probably know Nicole Shanahan. If not, here’s a brief intro: she might not be a household name—yet—but her credentials speak volumes. Shanahan is a legal tech entrepreneur, billionaire, philanthropist, and most recently, Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s running mate during his historic Independent presidential bid. She represents a new kind of political figure: someone who’s not just challenging the establishment but doing so with a pragmatic, logical agenda—and a healthy dose of charm.

Her endorsement of MAHA—Make America Healthy Again—and President-Elect Trump, while maintaining her Independent credibility, is not only an expression of her ability to bridge political divides, but her ability to draw support from both Democrats and Republicans. This positions her as a party disruptor. Prioritizing people over profits, rallying voters who are hungry for change.

Shanahan has championed transparency and accountability in tech and healthcare, echoing RFK Jr.’s decades-long fight for environmental justice and consumer safety—all of these concern millions of Californians. Shanahan has a clear vision for a healthier, more sustainable future—one that prioritizes people over corporations and transcends traditional partisan boundaries. And this is really important because at a time when the Democratic Party doesn’t have a champion or a north star, Shanahan is an expression of unity so many voters are looking for.

I also think she has some of the “X” factor that people love. In the same way that Arnold Schwarzenegger had the element of him being an A-List Actor and bodybuilder that helped land him the governors seat in 2003 as a Republican, Nicole Shanahan being a Silicon Valley billionaire, a political disruptor, and philanthropist could move some needles as an Independent in 2026. And while this is completely unnecessary, I can’t help but mention that as I write this newsletter, it’s the day after Thanksgiving—officially Christmas season. So, in honor of this discussion, I highly recommend the family holiday classic Jingle All The Way, starring none other than former California Governor, Arnold Schwarzenegger. 👇🏼🎄

Now here’s the bad: her alignment with RFK Jr. could be dangerous. Kennedy’s perspective on vaccines could make some people feel uncomfortable. While Shanahan’s platform champions innovation and accountability, her close ties to RFK Jr.—now working alongside President Trump—could make her polarizing. While many people like what they’re seeing with MAHA, It’s all about building trust across California’s diverse voter base. Balancing a shared vision, while also needing to appeal to a broader base to build trust across California’s deeply blue, deeply diverse base.

Rethinking How An Independent Can Win.

California’s top-two primary system offers a rare opportunity for Independents. In this system, the two candidates with the most votes—regardless of party—advance to the general election. This means an Independent with broad appeal could actually bypass the traditional party machinery and take on a Democrat or Republican in a head-to-head contest.

Shanahan’s unique perspective on practical solutions and tech-driven problem-solving could unite moderates, disillusioned Democrats, and pragmatic Republicans. Key issues like housing affordability, homelessness, and tech accountability resonate with Californians across the spectrum, and Shanahan is uniquely positioned to address them with credibility. When she was on Impact Theory she briefly comments on the 2026 governor race in California.

Nicole Shanahan’s ties to RFK Jr. don’t just boost her profile—they anchor her as a force for change. She’s not afraid to take on Big Pharma, corporate giants, or change political norms, positioning herself as the kind of bold disruptor voters dream about when they say they’re ready for something different.

Shanahan’s Toughest Battles:

Look, I don’t want to sugarcoat this: running as an Independent in California is a big deal and a big task. Here’s what Shanahan—or any Independent—would need to overcome:

1. Censorship: This should go without saying, but censorship was a core reason as to why Kennedy and Shanahan’s presidential bid fell short. Assuming the same struggle will occur in 2026, her strategy needs to take that into consideration and dive deeper into alternative media. Thankfully, there is a shift happening in the quality and value in independent platforms that’s so significant that are making the waves and impact that legacy media once made.

2. Fundraising: Without the financial backing of a major party, raising the tens of millions of dollars required for a statewide campaign is a monumental challenge. Shanahan’s Silicon Valley connections could help, but tapping into grassroots support would be just as crucial.

3. Systems: Campaigning across California requires deep pockets and an efficient operation. a well-oiled machine. Thankfully Shanahan’s existing network gives her a head start, but scaling it will be key.

4. Skepticism: Like I mentioned earlier, convincing voters that an Independent isn’t just a protest vote, but a legitimate move in modern politics, remains a big issue.

What It Takes for Shanahan to Win California:

Shanahan’s path to victory would depend on a few critical strategies:

• Hyper-Focus on Issues: Californians are issue-driven, and Shanahan’s platform would need to address the state’s most pressing problems, like skyrocketing housing costs, homelessness, drought resilience, and tech regulation.

• Using the RFK Effect: By leaning into her association with RFK Jr., Shanahan could tap into a growing movement of voters dissatisfied with corporate influence and party politics.

• “The Podcast Election”: 2024 is being touted as the podcast election because the volume of podcasts that President Trump went on not only outweighed Kamala’s, but it allowed voters to spend the most time with the candidate that they aligned with, ultimately creating a relationship with listeners that I believe fueled voter turnout. Shanahan’s an extraordinary communicator, and utilizing that in podcasts to reach millions is crucial.

• Avengers 2.0: To make it past the primary and into the general election, Shanahan would need to appeal to a BROAD coalition of moderates, Independents, and even disillusioned party loyalists. In the same way that people all across political isle threw their support behind President Trump, Shanahan needs to draw the same support.

• Leverage Tech: Shanahan’s Silicon Valley background gives her an edge in fundraising, connecting with tech entrepreneurs, and grassroots organizing through newsletters can be a game changer.

Why This Matters:

An Independent win in California would be more than just a political upset—it would signal a seismic shift in American politics. If Nicole Shanahan can unite and navigate California’s political culture, it won’t just chane the state—it could redefine the future of American politics for better and for always.

But What Do You Think?

Could Nicole Shanahan—or any Independent—actually win in California? Would a Republican stand a better chance? What would it take to break the two-party stranglehold? Drop your thoughts in the comments or hit reply—I’d love to hear your take in the comment section! 👇🏼

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