A Billion Dollars Wasted: Kamala, Trump, RFK Jr, and the Podcast Revolution

How the 2024 election proved that authenticity and ideas matter more than big money in the age of independent media.

BONUS: Since I loved this article so much I recorded a podcast version of this so you can listen along to it here! 👆🏼 The podcast also includes some bonus material that didn’t make the final cut of the article, but found its home in the podcast. 🎧

Hope everyone had a great Christmas! It's December 29th, 2024, and there’s a conversation that I’ve been chewing on in regards to this last election—where a billion dollars was on the line—and how it stacked up against other campaigns. This isn't just about the numbers; it's about the advertising, podcasts, and the future of media in politics.

This all started with a tweet I sent out a couple days ago about Kamala Harris. I wrote, “People don’t give Kamala Harris enough credit. Do you have any idea how hard it is to spent $1.5 billion and still lose?” And it got my thinking about what we all experienced over the past few months, so I wanted to dive deeper. From big money, big podcasts, and big losses. Let’s unpack this.

The Billion Dollar Question: How?

Kamala Harris's campaign raised and spent a crazy $1.5 billion (the number just keeps going up), making it one of the most expensive political campaigns in history. Despite outraising and outspending, she lost to the former president. President Trump, who spent significantly less, around $425 million, took this election home and left no crumbs for Kamala. Harris's campaign splurged on traditional and digital advertising, celebrity endorsements, and an insane field operation, yet the ROI was terribly underwhelming. President Trump on the other hand, capitalized on free, earned media like podcasts and live streams, proving one of the points I want to make here which is: money alone can’t buy a good candidate in the same way that height alone can’t make a good NBA player. Yes, money/height helps, but if you don’t have the skills or the commitment to really drive things home, you won’t make it on top.

As I write this I’m thinking about this incredible clip of someone talking about Kobe Bryants mentality and work ethic. On game day Kobe was the first and last one in the gym, because he wanted his competition to know that he was going to outwork and outtrain them. Kobe Bryant has all the natural ability to excel in the sport, but still did not let himself rely on natural ability alone, he worked dumb hard to stay on top.

Money Talks, But Can It Shoot? 🏀

So back to Kamala, you can have all the resources like money, but if you’re not playing the right game, you’re never going to come out on top. Part of Kamala’s strategy was very advertising dependent, with over $500 million going towards TV, digital, and physical ads. One strategy stuck out among voters though, and it was the use of spending campaign dollars on celebrity endorsements like Beyoncé and Taylor Swift. The goal was clear, it was to “energize” the youth vote, but all it really did was give people more material as to how out of touch the Democratic Party was. And this really stained their undecided voters reach.

It’s also worth noting that the campaign's digital footprint was massive, yet the engagement didn't translate into votes as hoped. On the other side, Trump's campaign was really good at leveraging earned media, with long form podcasts over tens of different independent media outlets, much on YouTube. And it’s not that this strategy was designed for maximum coverage, but for maximum depth. And I have to be brutally clear here, this is why Trump’s strategy was so genius, because his message through these podcasts was able to reach voters without the substantial price tag, but with the depth of conversation. Which takes me to my second point: Authenticity through long form conversations outweighed the spectacle of spending on advertising. The distribution on Youtube and all these other platforms for independent creators is free, but the effects of the podcasts lead viewers to become voters, and this ended up costing Kamala the election. For maybe the first time, in a meaningful way, we saw viewers turn into voters.

Does Any Of “This” Happen Without RFK Jr.?

In this conversation, I can’t stop thinking about Robert F. Kennedy Jr. He ran a remarkable campaign as an Independent candidate, and faced a huge uphill battle with limited funds. So what do you do when it’s in the middle of 2023 and you don’t have the advertising dollars that your opponents have? You get creative. You go on podcasts, you post videos on TikTok, YouTube, X, and wherever else people are… This to me is exactly what made RFK Jr. such a key player in this election. And if I can speak bullishly a bit, this is what gave President Trump the material and the strategy to win.

Everyone loved when President Trump went on the All In Podcast on Jun 20, 2024, but here’s my big question: Does that happen if RFK Jr. never went on the same podcast almost a year earlier on May 5, 2023? Let’s go even further. People went crazy when Trump went on Theo Von on Aug 20 of this year, but again RFK Jr. went on the same internet show a year earlier on Sep 25, 2023. And the same is true for the big one, Joe Rogan. RFK Jr. went on the Joe Rogan Experience on Jun 15, 2023. Trump went on days before the biggest election of our lives, Oct 25, 2024. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was the first presidential candidate to appear on all of these internet shows in this election cycle, long before Trump or Kamala even entered the conversation.

There’s a reason why this past election is being called, “The Podcast Election”, and it’s truly because podcasts, and earned, independent media in general was such an identifying characteristic of this election that not only changed the outcome of this election, but it truly changed how all politicians connect with their voters forever.

The Future—Way Beyond the 2024 Election

On the night that President Trump won his reelection, Dana White got on stage and thanked independent media directly as part of the reason why he won. Dana White got on stage next to all of Trump’s family and says, “I want to thank some people… the Nelk Boys, Aiden Ross, Theo Von, and last but not least the mighty and powerful Joe Rogan.”

That’s my third and biggest takeaway. Through the democratization of online, independent media, ideas are becoming more important than advertising dollars spent. In the digital arena, good ideas can travel more powerfully than ads. Speaking of the democratization of online independent media and its importance, I would love to invite you to support this independent publication. If you want to support independent media and the people who fight for it, an easy way is to become a paid subscriber to this newsletter! Here is a quick thank you to the people who support the making of the videos and the newsletter! Thank you Visionaries for making all of this possible! 🙌🏻

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